Look, I've been through three Bitcoin cycles now. Bought my first BTC back in 2017 when everyone said it was a scam. Watched it crash in 2018. Held through 2021's madness. And here we are again everyone's screaming "$100K or bust!" But is it real? Let me give it to you straight, no financial advisor nonsense.
1. Remember When Bitcoin Crashed 80%? I Do
Let's get one thing clear - Bitcoin doesn't go up in a straight line.
December 2017: $20K → $3K (85% drop)
November 2021: $69K → $16K (77% drop)
Right Now: Sitting at $60K-ish... next stop?
My
point? If you're thinking about buying Bitcoin, you better have strong
hands. The road to $100K (if it happens) will be full of:
✔️ "Bitcoin is dead" headlines
✔️ 40% overnight drops
✔️ Your cousin telling you "I told you so"
2. The 2024 Halving: Why This Time Might Be Different
Here's what most articles won't tell you:
The halving (when Bitcoin mining rewards get cut in half) has always sparked crazy bull runs:
2016 Halving: $650 → $20K
2020 Halving: $9K → $69K
But this time? Two new factors:
Spot ETFs - Your boomer uncle can now buy Bitcoin through Fidelity
Institutional Adoption - BlackRock's playing now (they don't lose often)
My gut says this cycle could be bigger. But...
3. The Elephant in the Room: What Could Go Wrong
A. The US Government Might Screw Us
Remember when the SEC sued Coinbase? That was just a warning shot. If they:
Tax Bitcoin gains at 90%
Pull some other nonsense
...all bets are off.
B. A Black Swan Event
Like:
World War 3
Another COVID-level crisis
Tether collapsing (don't even get me started)
Bitcoin's survived everything so far, but nothing's guaranteed.
4. What Real People Are Saying (Not Just Twitter Crypto Bros)
I asked around:
Mike (Taxi Driver, Chicago):
"Bought at $60K in 2021. Still holding. Either I retire or drive this cab forever."
Sarah (Tech Worker, Austin):
"Putting 5% of my paycheck in BTC since 2020. Not selling till $250K."
My Uncle Frank (Who Still Uses AOL):
"It's all a scam!... Wait, how do I buy some?"
5. My Personal Strategy (What I'm Actually Doing)
DCA Like Clockwork
$500/month no matter the price
Rain or shine, bull or bear
Cold Storage Only
Not your keys, not your coins
Ledger wallet in a safe
Ignore 99% of Crypto News
Most of it's noise
The signal? Just check the 4-year chart
6. $100K in 2025? Here's My Take
Best Case Scenario:
Halving pump + ETF inflows + weak dollar
We hit $100K by Q2 2025
Worst Case:
Regulatory crackdown + recession
Stuck between $30K-$50K
My Prediction?
Somewhere in the middle. $75K feels realistic. $100K? Possible, but don't bet your house on it.
Should You Buy?
If you:
- Understand the risks
- Won't panic sell at a 50% drop
- Can afford to lose it
...then maybe. But if you're looking for a "sure thing," go buy Treasury bonds instead.
What do you think? Hit reply and tell me, are you buying, holding, or sitting this one out?
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